[Salon] China has potential to become world’s largest consumer market by 2041, policy adviser says

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China has potential to become world’s largest consumer market by 2041, policy adviser says

The country’s share of global consumption could surpass 20 per cent over the next decade or so, becoming a critical economic anchor for Hong Kong, analyst says

SCMP

Mia Nurmamat

7 Jul 2026

Mainland China, already a manufacturing powerhouse, has the potential to become the world’s largest consumer market within the next 10 to 15 years, driven by consumer spending on services where Hong Kong maintains a distinct competitive advantage, according to a prominent Chinese policy adviser.

The country’s share of global consumption could rise by about one percentage point every one to two years, surpassing 20 per cent over the next decade or decade and a half, said Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute for Reform and Development, a Hainan-based public policy think tank.

“China’s consumption level will gradually converge with that of most developed economies,” said Chi, who is also the president of the Hainan Institute for Free Trade Port Studies, a regional think tank also based in the province.

Mainland China becoming the world’s largest consumer market, he added, would make it Hong Kong’s “strongest economic anchor”.

Speaking on Tuesday at the annual China Conference hosted by the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, Chi said mainland China accounted for more than one-third of global manufacturing output while its share of global consumption stood at about 13 to 15 per cent, leaving “a significant gap” between the two.

“If China’s share of global consumption could eventually match its manufacturing share at around one-third, the country would become not only the world’s largest manufacturing hub, but also its largest consumer market and biggest importer,” he said.

The comments come as Beijing grapples with persistently weak domestic demand, with retail sales growth in May slowing to its weakest pace since December 2022, according to official data.

A long-time advocate of consumption-led growth and market-oriented reforms, Chi renewed his call for greater “investment in people” – a shift that involves channelling more public resources towards households to spur consumption and long-term growth.

He proposed deploying 100 trillion yuan (US$14.7 trillion) in state-owned capital to expand public services and unlock the consumption potential of more than 300 million migrant workers.

Chi is among the country’s most influential voices on deepening reform and opening-up and has long championed the Hainan Free Trade Port and closer regional integration through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

The latter is the world’s largest free trade agreement, comprising 15 Asia-Pacific economies and accounting for about 30 per cent of global gross domestic product and more than a quarter of global exports.

He noted that Hong Kong was likely to join RCEP later this year, becoming the bloc’s 16th member. “I hope Hong Kong can play a greater role as a driver and facilitator of international cooperation under the RCEP framework,” he said.

Mia Nurmamat

Mia Nurmamat (previously bylined as Mia Nulimaimaiti) joined the Post in August 2022. She holds a master’s degree from the University of Hong Kong and a bachelor’s from Fudan University. She interned at NBC's Asia desk before joining the Post. Her areas of